European referendum…..to be held in 2016 and won by ‘remain’ – just – around 54/46. The Tory Party to show once again that it has a death wish but will survive in one piece – just!
The 2016 US Presidential election…..it will eventually be Rubio v Hillary after a fight to the death between Trump (yes, he’s not going anywhere yet), Cruz and Rubio for GOP nomination. Hillary to become President. Secretary Clinton is an average candidate but could be an excellent President – here’s hoping.
New runway to be given go-ahead at Heathrow but lots of concessions will be made on noise, pollution etc to pacify some in Parliament – the decision will be announced after the London Mayor election to avoid an embarrassing resignation from the Tory candidate and a by-election. The mayoral election itself will be a wafer thin result – I just fancy Zac Goldsmith to win but in a very, very tight race.
Tories to finish second in Scottish elections with another huge majority for the SNP.
The Lib Dems will show signs in local by-elections and the May local elections in England of a return from the political wilderness – big year ahead for them to see whether they can attract moderate Labour members/supporters who become alienated by the new leadership and direction.
Labour to lose control of Welsh Assembly.
Jeremy Corbyn…..I’ve no idea what is going to happen! All the historical precedents, conventions and the political rule book are out of the window. He could be gone by June or stay until 2020……recommendation: no bet!
By the end of the year the Tory leadership election will be in full (unofficial) swing. George Osborne will be leader when the time comes. Let’s be frank, he doesn’t face any real competition from the usual named suspects. Whatever people argue, Boris and Theresa May are not party leader material. If you would like an outsider, worth keeping an eye on Amber Rudd – not for now, but for the future. Very impressive.
In Ireland…..Edna Kenny to return as Taoiseach but Sinn Fein to make more gains – may just sneak into second place. FG to be biggest party and may govern alone in a minority. Lots of talk of FG/FF coalition – just don’t see it.