• Author:Ben Jones
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My general election predictions………#natesilverneednotworry

In the spirit of openness and at the risk of looking very silly by Friday lunchtime, I have included below my predictions for the general election. I have also included the odds with PaddyPower.

Those predictions of a more speculative nature have been marked *.

Enjoy and don’t laugh too hard if I end up looking like the 1992 BBC Exit Poll!

Turnout to be over 67.5% – 5/6
Tories to win the most seats – 1/5
Tories to win the most votes – 1/5
Tories to win over 286.5 seats – 5/6
*Tories to win a majority – 6/1
Lib Dems to win over 25.5. seats – 5/6
UKIP to win less than 2 seats – 8/15
NI – East Belfast – DUP to win from Alliance – 1/6
Fermanagh and South Tyrone – Sinn Fein to hold – 4/11
*Upper Bann – UUP to win from DUP – 13/8
*Foyle – Sinn Fein to take from SDLP – 4/1
Belfast South – DUP to take from SDLP – 5/2
South Thanet – Tory to win (i.e. Nigel Farage not to win) – 11/8
Sheffield Halam – Lib Dems/Nick Clegg to hold the seat – 1/4
*Weaver Vale – Tories to hold the seat – 9/4
Scotland – SNP to win 48 seats – 10/1
Scotland – SNP to win 49 seats – 9/1
Scotland – SNP to win 50 seats – 9/1
SNP to win seats under 51.5 seats – 10/11
PM after election – Cameron – evens
Clegg to be Lib Dem leader at year end – 2/1